Europe’s Road to the World Cup: Who’s Heading for North America — and Who Faces the Play-offs?
As the dust begins to settle on the penultimate international break of the cycle, Europe’s World Cup qualifying campaign is entering its decisive week. Over the next six or seven days, dreams will be realised, hearts will be broken and the final puzzle pieces of the continent’s route to next summer’s World Cup in North America will fall into place.
For some, the job is all but done. For others, a nerve-shredding playoff route beckons — or, for the luckier few, a second chance earned through the Nations League. Here’s how things stand across every group ahead of a dramatic final stretch.
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Group A: Germany and Slovakia neck-and-neck
Germany and Slovakia are locked together on nine points after four matches in Group A, with Northern Ireland just behind on six. Slovakia face Northern Ireland in a pivotal fifth-round fixture, while Germany travel to Luxembourg — a match that should leave the four-time world champions in pole position heading into round six.
That final round could see a straight shootout for top spot: Germany host Slovakia while Northern Ireland entertain Luxembourg. Slovakia, though, will remember their famous autumn victory over Germany, a result that could still prove decisive if goal difference comes into play.
Group B: Swiss serenity, Swedish stress
Switzerland can clinch their World Cup place as early as Saturday when they host Sweden. Even if not mathematically confirmed then, their passage seems inevitable. Sweden, meanwhile, have endured a nightmare campaign and now cling to the prospect of a Nations League playoff lifeline.
For the Scandinavians to grab second place outright, they would need to win both remaining matches — away to Switzerland and home to Slovenia — while hoping Kosovo lose twice. As it stands, Kosovo hold the advantage for the playoff berth in Group B.
Group C: Denmark and Scotland set for a blockbuster finale
Group C is already a two-horse race between Denmark and Scotland, with both nations guaranteed at least a playoff. Denmark hold the advantage on goal difference, meaning Scotland must outscore the Danes on points to reach the World Cup directly.
Scotland travel to Greece on Saturday, while Denmark host Belarus — likely setting up a thrilling group final in Glasgow next Tuesday night. Scotland v Denmark, 18 November (19:45 UK time), could be one of the most electric nights of the entire qualifying campaign.
Group D: France almost there, Ukraine and Iceland fight for second
France sit three points clear of Ukraine at the top of Group D and can wrap up qualification when the sides meet on Thursday. Ukraine’s focus, though, may be on fending off Iceland for the playoff spot.
Iceland face Azerbaijan on Thursday before what looks like a winner-takes-all clash with Ukraine on Sunday — a game that could decide who keeps their World Cup dream alive.
Group E: Spain cruising, Turkey almost safe
Spain’s qualification feels a mere formality. The reigning European champions have won four from four in Group E with a 15-0 goal difference. Behind them, Turkey need just a single point from their final two fixtures to secure second place — and with Bulgaria visiting on Saturday (a team with one goal scored and 16 conceded), it seems a safe bet that Turkey will book a playoff ticket.
Group F: Portugal’s coronation, Hungary and Ireland in the chase
Portugal require only a point in Group F to secure their place at the finals, leaving the spotlight on the battle for second between Hungary and Ireland. Hungary sit on five points, one ahead of Ireland.
Hungary enjoy a kinder fifth-round fixture — home to Armenia — while Ireland face the daunting visit of Portugal. Should both stay within touching distance, all eyes turn to Sunday’s showdown in Budapest (14:00 UK time), where Hungary host Ireland in what could be a direct decider for the playoff slot.
Group G: Dutch control, Poland hold the edge over Finland
The Netherlands are poised to seal top spot in Group G, but the fight for second between Poland and Finland remains alive. The Poles visit the Dutch on Friday — victory for the hosts would crown them group winners, but a Polish win would set up a tense final day.
In that last round, the Netherlands host Lithuania while Poland travel to Malta. Finland’s faint hopes rely on beating Malta on Friday and praying Poland lose both remaining matches.
Group H: Austria lead, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Romania still in it
Group H, perhaps the tightest group of all. Austria lead with 15 points, Bosnia-Herzegovina are two behind on 13, and Romania remain in touch on 10.
Saturday is crucial: Austria visit Cyprus, while Bosnia face Romania in a huge clash. Bosnia must avoid dropping points, as they finish away to Austria on Tuesday — while Romania will be confident of ending with a win over San Marino.
Group I: Norway on the brink, Italy likely playoff-bound
Norway hold a three-point lead over Italy in Group I and boast a 3-0 head-to-head win from earlier in the campaign. Both are expected to win this round — Norway at home to Estonia, Italy away to Moldova — meaning Italy would need to overturn that 3-0 result in their final showdown to steal first place.
That seems unlikely, so Erling Haaland & co look set for the World Cup, while Italy brace for yet another playoff adventure.
Group J: Belgium favoured, Wales and North Macedonia in pursuit
Belgium top the table of Group J on 14 points, one ahead of North Macedonia and four clear of Wales. Belgium and Wales each have two matches left, while North Macedonia have only one — away to Wales in the final round.
Belgium can clinch qualification by beating Kazakhstan on Saturday. If Wales beat Liechtenstein, they’ll set up a potential winner-takes-all duel with North Macedonia next week for the playoff spot.
Group K: England already through, Albania and Serbia duel for second
England are the only European team mathematically qualified before this window. The battle now lies behind them in Group K: Albania (11 pts) hold a narrow edge over Serbia (10).
Albania visit Andorra before hosting England; Serbia face England away before ending at home to Latvia. Should Albania win on Thursday and England beat Serbia, second place would be sealed early for the Albanians.
Group L: Croatia calm, Faroe Islands dreaming
Croatia need just a single point from their final two fixtures in Group L — at home to the Faroe Islands and away to Montenegro — to rubber-stamp their World Cup berth.
The Faroes have impressed but sit just behind the Czech Republic in the playoff chase. To snatch second, they must take more points away to Croatia than the Czechs earn at home to Gibraltar — an unlikely scenario, but their qualification run has already been a story in itself.
The final sprint
Twelve groups, dozens of permutations, and a week of high-stakes football await. By the time the whistle blows next Tuesday, Europe’s World Cup map will be nearly complete — from Haaland’s Norway to Modrić’s Croatia, from Potter’s struggling Sweden to Scotland’s feverish dream of a home decider.
Follow every twist and turn of the qualifiers — live scores, updated tables and all the drama — in the Forza app as the road to North America 2026 reaches its crescendo.